I also believe Microsoft is beginning a play for an iOS-style walled garden. However, and unfortunately, I also believe most people won't really notice.
And, for those who don't agree, here's the really boiled down version of why I think Alex is right: there are now two Windows APIs. Over time, as they reach a new status quo, Microsoft will notice one will is less profitable than the other. That one will be deprecated, then dropped. Anyone want to guess which (Win32 or WinRT)?
I kind of knew from the day Windows Phone 7 was released this was the direction MS was going to take. I don't have a strong opinion where it's heading and whether or not we should assume for the worse. Either scenario you extrapolate, one fact remains. If consumers adopt Win8, it's pretty much going to pull the rest of us into it, whether we like the new policies or not. For every studio that rejects Win8, another studio will see it as an open opportunity. Even if Win8 flops, I don't think MS is in a position to turn things around. They are way to committed. The question is, who will cave first. MS or consumers. At some point you need to buy a new phone or PC. A PC will come pre-bundled with Win8 and mobile vendors Verizon and ATT have already voiced their support for pushing Win8 in order to curtail Apple's monopolistic attitude.
I still think this whole thing will backfire. So far, Windows 8 adoption is 5 times slower than Windows 7 was at the same point in time:
As far as Apps, we are moving into browser apps that neither Windows nor Apple will be able to control. I don't think WindowsRT will ever get off the ground, but it may be wishful thinking on my part. I think they will be running a distant third on tablets and will be losing more ground on desktop. Not too many will go to Linux, but some will, enough to make shareholders very nervous.
I dont see microsoft surviving by not being the opposite of apple which essentially it had been. microsoft products were something you could use to get the job done without the fluff. but just following apples every move I have no use for a company afraid to follow there own seperate path